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Son 9 (2026)
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Ilmiy maqolalar

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF STATE-OWNED BANKS IN UZBEKISTAN

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss9/1936

Nashr qilingan 2026-09-12

Mualliflar
Salamov Islam Tashkazakovich
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Annotatsiya

The study examined how macroeconomic conditions related to the transformation of state-owned banks in Uzbekistan, taking JSCB Turonbank as its case. The author combined descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and ordinary least squares regression, drawing on monthly banking indicators and annual macroeconomic series for 2018-2025. The analysis identified a strong positive association between the refinancing rate and capital adequacy, and an inverse association between inflation and non-performing loans. Predicted values for 2025 came close to reported outcomes, which confirmed a satisfactory in-sample fit. The author interpreted the estimates as statistical associations, since the annual series remained short. The conclusion proposed measures on capital management, credit monitoring, corporate governance and digitalisation that strengthen financial resilience and support evidence-based transformation decisions.

Kalit so'zlar

state-owned banks, bank transformation, Turonbank, capital adequacy, non-performing loans, macroeconomic factors, econometric analysis.

Foydalanilgan adabiyotlar

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