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No. 9 (2026)
Marketing

Scientific articles

ОЦЕНКА АСИММЕТРИИ ПЕРЕНОСА ВАЛЮТНОГО КУРСА В ПОТРЕБИТЕЛЬСКИЕ ЦЕНЫ УЗБЕКИСТАНА

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss9/2132 Pages 826-836

Published 2026-09-07

Authors
Плотников Андрей Викторович
Affiliation
Urgench State University image/svg+xml
Marketing jurnali — 2026-yil sentabr, 9-son
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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the magnitude and possible asymmetry of the som exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices based on monthly data from April 2018 to August 2026 (2018M04-2026M08, 101 observations) using an asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model. Empirical estimates show that the pass-through is small and fast: a 1% depreciation of the som increases the consumer price index by 0.095% in the current month and by 0.14% over 12 months, with 96% of the annual effect manifesting within the first three months. The point estimate of the som appreciation effect is -0.04% (SE = 0.14) and is statistically indistinguishable from zero. However, due to the limited number of appreciation episodes in the sample (29 out of 101 months), a formal Wald test does not reject the hypothesis of equal coefficients (p = 0.25). Thus, the conclusion regarding asymmetry is preliminary and reflects insufficient statistical power in the available data. The pass-through is concentrated primarily in the food category (0.26% per year, p < 0.01), whereas in nonfood goods and services, pass-through from depreciation is practically absent.

Keywords

exchange rate pass-through, asymmetry, consumer prices, food prices, inflation targeting, asymmetric ADL model

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