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No. 12 (2025)
Marketing

Articles

ADVANCED APPROACHES TO THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND THE CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF PUBLISHING THE BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX IN UZBEKISTAN

Published 2025-12-25

Authors
Jumayev Olimjon Sadulloyevich a , Toʻymatov Muzaffarjon Yoqubjon oʻgʻli b , Toshkent shahridagi Xalqaro c
Affiliations
a Director of the Center for Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Research under the Committee for the Development of Competition and Protection of Consumer Rights of the Republic of Uzbekistan, DSc
b chief researcher of the Center for Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Research under the Committee for the Development of Competition and Protection of Consumer Rights of the Republic of Uzbekistan and
c Graduate student, University of Westminster
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Abstract

This article examines advanced approaches used for the rapid assessment of economic activity and elaborates the methodological and conceptual foundations for introducing the Business Activity Index (BFI) in Uzbekistan. Based on the analysis of internationa lly recognized indicators –such as the Purchasing Managersʼ Index (PMI), the IFO Index, and the Tankan Index –a tailored BFI methodology has been developed. The BFI enables the early identification of shifts in economic processes by utilizing prompt and near -real-time information in conditions where official statistics are formed with a time lag. In the study, sub -indices are constructed for key indicators, including production, new orders, employment, inventories, and price dynamics, after which an aggregate BFI score is calculated. The results demonstrate that the BFI serves as an effective analytical tool for assessing the current phase of the economic cycle, identifying regional differences in business activity, and generating short -term forecasts. The fin dings also justify the practical significance of applying the BFI for regular monitoring of the economic environment and supporting evidence -based policy decision -making in Uzbekistan.

Keywords

Business Activity Index (BFI), PMI methodology, supply, demand, employment, inflation

References

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  2. IHS Markit (2022). Global Manufacturing PMI: Methodology and Data. London: IHS Markit.
  3. JERC – Japan Economic Research Center (2019). Tankan Business Conditions Survey: Methodology Overview. Tokyo: JERC.
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  9. OECD – Organisation for Economic Co -operation and Development (2019). Business Tendency Surveys: A Handbook. Paris: OECD Publishing. № 1 2-SON DEKABR, 2025 -YIL ,

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