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No. 10 (2026)
Marketing

Scientific articles

OʻZBEKISTONDA AHOLI KREDITLARI FOIZ STAVKALARI TAHLILI

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss10/2192 Pages 97-107

Published 2026-10-15

Authors
Bobojonova Sevara Baxrombek qizi
Affiliation
Tashkent xalqaro universiteti
Marketing — 10-son, oktabr 2026
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Abstract

This article examines the relationship between local currency commercial lending rates for individuals in Uzbekistan and the policy rate, time deposit rate and annual inflation. The data exclude preferential loans, microloans and credit cards. The study uses 80 monthly Central Bank observations from January 2020 to August 2026. A dynamic regression in first differences with one lag is estimated using Newey–West standard errors. Holding other factors constant, a one percentage point policy rate change is associated with a cumulative two-month lending rate change of 0.786 percentage points. The positive deposit rate association loses statistical significance when 2020 is excluded. A separate short-term association with inflation is not established. The policy rate result is sensitive to individual decision periods. Funding costs, credit product composition and risk expenses should be distinguished in loan pricing. The estimates describe conditional associations, not causal effects or long-run pass-through coefficients.

Keywords

lending rate, policy rate, deposit, inflation, interest rate transmission, dynamic regression, loan pricing

References

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