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No. 9 (2026)
Marketing

Scientific articles

BYUDJET MABLAGʻLARINI TAQSIMLASH JARAYONIDA MOLIYAVIY RISKLAR DARAJASINI ANIQLASHNING KOʻP MEZONLI BAHOLASH USULLARI

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss9/2196 Pages 1010-1020

Published 2026-09-07

Authors
Uzoqov Azamat Baxodir oʻgʻli
Affiliation
Jizzax viloyati Paxtakor tumani iqtisodiyot va moliya boʻlimi birinch oʻrinbosari
Marketing jurnali — 2026-yil sentabr, 9-son
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Abstract

The article developed a multi-criteria approach to determining financial risk levels in budget allocation. Six fiscal risk criteria were selected: the adjusted budget deficit, policy-based lending, public debt, external debt, revenue coverage of expenditures and economic growth. Criterion weights were derived with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the consistency ratio equalled 0.008. TOPSIS scores and an integral risk index were calculated on data for Uzbekistan for 2022-2025. The highest risk level was found in 2023, while in 2024-2025 the risk returned to the moderate zone owing to the reduction of the deficit. The results held under equal weights and twelve sensitivity scenarios. It was proposed to apply the integral index at the stage of preparing the draft budget and to link the limits of quasi-fiscal lending and guarantees to the risk zone.

Keywords

budget allocation, fiscal risk, multi-criteria assessment, AHP, TOPSIS, integral risk index, public debt, budget deficit

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