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Son 3 (2025)
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IJTIMOIY MUHIM OZIQ -OVQAT MAHSULOTLAR NARXLARINING KELGUSI TENDENSIYALARINI PROGNOZLASHNI EKONOMETRIK TAHLILLAR ASOSIDA MODELLASHTIRISH

Nashr etilgan 2025-03-28

Mualliflar
Jumayev Olimjon Sadulloyevich
Tashkilot
Oʻzbekiston Respublikasi Raqobatni rivojlantirish va isteʼmolchilar huquqlarini himoya qilish qoʻmitasi huzuridagi Raqobat siyosati va isteʼmolchilar huquqlari tadqiqotlari markazi direktori. DSc
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Annotatsiya

Mazkur tadqiqot orqali asosiy oziq -ovqat mahsulotlari: mol goʻshti, kartoshka va guruch narxlarini ekonometrik modellar asosida prognozlash modeli ishlab chiqildi. Mol goʻshti, kartoshka va guruch mahsulotlarini kelgusi 6 oyda kutilayotgan narxlarini prognozlash Statistika agentligi tomonidan taqdim etilgan 5 yillik narxlardan foydalanilib, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modellaridan foydalanildi. Ishning dolzarbligi ushbu tovarlar narxlarining yuqori oʻzgaruvchanligi bilan bogʻliq boʻlib , bu aholining turmush darajasi, inflyatsiya darajasi, iqtisodiy barqarorlik va ijtimoiy rivojlanishga bevosita taʼsir koʻrsatadi. Ishlab chiqilgan model davlat organlarining narxlar dinamikasini prognoz qilish, bozorni oʻz vaqtida tartibga solish va inqir oz ssenariylarini oldini olishda qoʻllanilishi mumkin. Metodologiya 5 yillik tarixiy maʼlumotlarni tahlil qilish, vaqt qatorlarining barqarorligini tekshirish (ADF testi), ACF/PACF grafiklari va AIC/BIC mezonlari asosida ARIMA (r, d, q) parametrlarini tanlash, shuningdek, RMSE va MAE metrikalari orqali prognozlarning aniqligini baholashni oʻz ichiga oladi. Nat ijalar shuni koʻrsatdiki, tashqi faktorlar mavjud boʻlmaganda model mol goʻshti, kartoshka va guruch uchun eng samarali (RMSE = 2.1) hisoblanadi. Tadqiqot oziq -ovqat xavfsizligi muammolari uchun ARIMA modelining ustunligini namoyish etadi, shuningdek, kelgusi ishlarda ekzogen omillarni birlashtirish zarurligini taʼkidlaydi.

Kalit so'zlar

ARIMA, mol goʻshti, kartoshka, guruch, oziq -ovqat xavfsizligi

Adabiyotlar ro'yxati

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