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No. 8 (2026)
Marketing

Scientific articles

ПИЛОТНОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ ИНФЛЯЦИИ В УЗБЕКИСТАНЕ

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss8/2124 Pages 518-532

Published 2026-08-30

Authors
Плотников Андрей Викторович
Affiliation
Urgench State University image/svg+xml
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Abstract

The article examined short-term associations between food inflation, the exchange rate, and global food prices in Uzbekistan. Monthly observations covered January 2021 to August 2026. Dynamic regression incorporated lagged inflation, external factors with a one-month lag, and calendar seasonality. Persistence and seasonal patterns contributed substantially to describing price movements. Exchange rate changes and the FAO index provided no statistically significant additional association. Findings remained consistent when observations from 2026 were excluded. Results did not establish causality or rule out longer-term transmission. Recommendations addressed seasonal monitoring, storage, processing, logistics, product-level and regional analysis, and subsequent evaluation of forecasting performance outside the estimation sample.

Keywords

food inflation, exchange rate, FAO index, inflation persistence, seasonality, dynamic regression, price transmission

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