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ПИЛОТНОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ ИНФЛЯЦИИ В УЗБЕКИСТАНЕ

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss8/2124 Betlar 518-532

Nashr qilingan 2026-08-30

Mualliflar
Плотников Андрей Викторович
Tashkilot
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Annotatsiya

Maqolada O‘zbekistonda oziq-ovqat inflyatsiyasining valyuta kursi va jahon oziq-ovqat narxlari bilan qisqa muddatli bog‘liqligi o‘rganildi. Tahlil 2021-yil yanvaridan 2026-yil avgustigacha bo‘lgan oylik ma’lumotlarga asoslandi. Dinamik regressiyada inflyatsiyaning oldingi qiymati, tashqi omillarning bir oylik kechikishi va mavsumiy ko‘rsatkichlar hisobga olindi. Inersiya hamda kalendar mavsumiyligi narxlar dinamikasini tavsiflashda muhim o‘rin egallagani aniqlandi. Valyuta kursi va FAO indeksining qo‘shimcha bog‘liqligi statistik ahamiyatli bo‘lmadi. Natijalar 2026-yil kuzatuvlari chiqarilganda ham saqlandi. Xulosalar sababiy ta’sir sifatida talqin qilinmadi va uzoqroq muddatdagi bog‘liqlikni inkor etmadi. Mavsumiy monitoringni takomillashtirish, saqlash, qayta ishlash va logistika imkoniyatlarini rivojlantirish yo‘nalishlari belgilandi. Tovarlar va hududlar kesimidagi tahlil hamda tanlanmadan tashqari prognoz tekshiruvlari keyingi tadqiqotlar uchun tavsiya etildi.

Kalit so'zlar

oziq-ovqat inflyatsiyasi, valyuta kursi, FAO indeksi, inflyatsiya inersiyasi, mavsumiylik, dinamik regressiya, narxlar uzatilishi

Foydalanilgan adabiyotlar

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