Tel: +998977838464

No. 9 (2026)
Marketing

Scientific articles

SANOAT KORXONALARIDA QUYOSH ENERGETIKASI LOYIHALARINING INVESTITSION SAMARADORLIGINI BAHOLASH METODIKASINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH

DOI 10.67668/mj/2026iss9/2127 Pages 772-783

Published 2026-09-07

Authors
Ismoilov Azamatbek Roʻzimaxammatovich
Affiliation
Alfraganus University image/svg+xml
Marketing jurnali — 2026-yil sentabr, 9-son
PDF (Uzbek) Google Scholar Google Scholar

Abstract

The article examined ways to improve the methodology for assessing the investment efficiency of solar energy projects at industrial enterprises. The author generalised net present value, internal rate of return, discounted payback, levelised cost of electricity and real options theory, combining module degradation, tariff indexation, a risk-adjusted discount rate and state incentives in one framework. A model calculation was performed for a hypothetical 1 MW rooftop plant using Uzbekistanʼs official tariff, exchange rate and international cost benchmarks. The improved methodology yielded a net present value of 5,828 million soums, an internal rate of return of 22.6 percent and a discounted payback of 8.3 years. Even without tariff indexation, the internal rate of return remained at 17.0 percent. A break-even tariff of 680 soums per kWh indicated a substantial safety margin. Practical proposals were developed from a sensitivity analysis and a vertical decision-making model.

Keywords

solar energy, industrial enterprise, investment efficiency, net present value, levelised cost of electricity, real options, sensitivity analysis, electricity tariff

References

  1. Branker, K., Pathak, M. J. M., & Pearce, J. M. (2011). A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(9), 4470-4482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.104
  2. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2025). Monetary policy guidelines for 2026-2028. Tashkent. https://cbu.uz/upload/iblock/68c/mz65rdz0nfo8kh6mw3cozgg0cj6zej11/Monetary-Policy-Guidelines-for-2026_2028_EN.pdf
  3. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2026). Official exchange rates of foreign currencies against the soum (30 September 2026). https://cbu.uz/en/arkhiv-kursov-valyut/
  4. Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under uncertainty. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400830176
  5. Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2-3), 187-243. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00044-7
  6. IEA. (2022). Solar energy policy in Uzbekistan: A roadmap. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-energy-policy-in-uzbekistan-a-roadmap/context-of-renewable-energy-in-uzbekistan
  7. Interfax. (2026, May 15). Uzbekistan to raise electricity, gas tariffs for businesses and households from June. https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/117593/
  8. IRENA. (2025). Renewable power generation costs in 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2025/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_in_2024_Summary_2025.pdf
  9. IRENA. (2026). Renewable power generation costs in 2025. Annex I: Cost metric methodology. International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_in_2025_Annex_2026.pdf
  10. Jordan, D. C., & Kurtz, S. R. (2013). Photovoltaic degradation rates -an analytical review. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 21(1), 12-29. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2171
  11. Kun.uz. (2026, September 16). Central Bank of Uzbekistan keeps rate at 14%. https://kun.uz/en/news/2026/09/16/central-bank-of-uzbekistan-keeps-rate-at-14
  12. Lang, T., Ammann, D., & Girod, B. (2016). Profitability in absence of subsidies: A techno-economic analysis of rooftop photovoltaic self-consumption in residential and commercial buildings. Renewable Energy, 87, 77-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.059
  13. Luthander, R., Widén, J., Nilsson, D., & Palm, J. (2015). Photovoltaic self- consumption in buildings: A review. Applied Energy, 142, 80-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.12.028
  14. Martínez-Ceseña, E. A., Mutale, J., & Rivas-Dávalos, F. (2013). Real options theory applied to electricity generation projects: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 19, 573-581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.059
  15. Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, & Ministry of Investments and Foreign Trade. (2020). Uzbekistan solar round 2: 2 x ~200 MWac. Project teaser. https://minenergy.uz/uploads/ed9ed75d-5374-5117-94c0-e219e7faff02_media_46.pdf
  16. Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90015-0
  17. Ondraczek, J., Komendantova, N., & Patt, A. (2015). WACC the dog: The effect of financing costs on the levelized cost of solar PV power. Renewable Energy, 75, 888-898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.10.053
  18. Short, W., Packey, D. J., & Holt, T. (1995). A manual for the economic evaluation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies (NREL/TP-462- 5173). National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/old/5173.pdf
  19. Spot.uz. (2026, September 27). Uzbekistan to cut daytime electricity tariffs for businesses but raise night-time rates. https://www.spot.uz/en/2026/09/27/energy-tariff-shift
  20. Steffen, B. (2020). Estimating the cost of capital for renewable energy projects. Energy Economics, 88, 104783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104783
  21. Oʻzbekiston Respublikasining 2019-yil 21-maydagi OʻRQ-539-son “Qayta tiklanuvchi energiya manbalaridan foydalanish toʻgʻrisida”gi Qonuni. https://lex.uz/docs/-4346831
  22. Oʻzbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2023-yil 16-fevraldagi PQ-57-son “2023-yilda qayta tiklanuvchi energiya manbalarini va energiya tejovchi texnologiyalarni joriy etishni jadallashtirish chora-tadbirlari toʻgʻrisida”gi Qarori. https://lex.uz/uz/docs/-6385716

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.